Last updated: 16 June, 2020 (08:42:35)
The graph below represents the number of fatalities since 10th confirmed death. In the absence of widespread testing –which is the case for most countires – cumulative fatalities could be a more precise indicator of the spread of the virus and its trajectory over time. We want the curves to bend more horizontally. A lower inclination of the curve indicates a slowdown of cumulative deaths. The y-axis is log scaled.
Holding other factors constant, countries with a large population tend to have higher death totals. Adjusting by total population gives some information about the prevalence of deaths in the country. The y-axis is log scaled.
The observed fatalities divided by the total number of confirmed cases results in the case fatality rate (CFR). This indicator relies on each country testing policy. In general, more widespread testing leads to lower CFRs.
A country is flattening the cumulative confirmed death count curve if its day-over-day death rate (or daily fatality rate) is decreasing over time1. A flat daily rate implies exponential growth (above 0%).
Most recent data shown below.
Confirmed cases and fatalities: 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE.
Population: Countries in the world by population (2020)
Daily fatality rate is defined as: \(\delta_t = \frac{\Delta\text{death}_{t,t-1}}{\text{death}_{t-1}}\), where \(\text{death}_t\) is the cumulative deaths up to time \(t\) –the same applies to \(t-1\).↩